The National Intelligence Council published a declassified assessment on the COVID-19 origins on October 29th.

A very brief tldr; NIC strongly believe in two plausible hypothesis:

  1. A moderate confidence toward lab-associated incident.
  2. A low confidence toward natural transmission from animal to human.

What's broadly agreed upon by different elements of the NIC:

  1. The virus was not engineered to become a bioweapon
  2. The virus was not genetically engineered
  3. The first cluster emerged from Wuhan in December 2019
  4. China's officials were unaware of the virus before pandemic emerged.

Unfortunately due to the geopolitical nature, the world will never know the true origin of the virus.

My Opinion:

Human accident in lab environment is most plausible due to the many reported safety violations in the past that led to localized pandemics in China. Additionally, accidents in workplace is guaranteed to happen wherever human activities occur due to nuance human elements such as trainings, workplace culture, individual culture, individual health, values, etc, that dictate individuals decisions and actions and increase the likelihood of failing to adhere to safety conducts.

Industrial accidents are much more common than we think. Often time these accidents are small and minuscule that get swept under the rug. However, in lesser common but unfortunate circumstances, it only take one small mistake to trigger a runaway effect leading to catastrophic disaster. A poor decision by the managers to override the engineers led to the disastrous launch of Columbia Shuttle and death of the astronauts onboard, cementing the end to the USA golden era of space race. Likewise, the Soviet government withholding a small but very crucial design flaw in RBMK from their nuclear industry led to the Reactor 4 explosion, which led to Chernobyl accident, and no doubt contributed to the downfall of the Soviet Union.

Link to the declassified document below:

Updated Assessment on COVID-19 Origins
Office of the Director of National Intelligence - National Intelligence Council

https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf